← Board
Paul Skenes
PIT · RHP vs CHC · 2:20 PM ET
thin read
o5.5
line · proj 4.5
27%over
Projected 4.5 K: 27% to go over his 5.5 line. He collects strikeouts at a league-average clip (23%), facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (20%) and keeps putting the ball in play, but his recent form is shaky (3/10), so keep expectations in check; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets.
Chance to reach each total
644+
465+
276+
187+
118+
59+
<110+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.27.7%
- The lineup he faces pulls the number down. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.20.3%
- How deep he pitches pulls the number down. his pitch counts in recent starts85 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pulls the number down. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
The full story is part of MAXOUT Advanced.
Unlock Advanced: $19.99/mo, graded in publicEvery pitcher’s full story: the 40,000-run strikeout distribution, the confidence and risk breakdowns, the lineup he faces batter by batter, and where every input came from. Lives in MAXOUT Advanced. The free board keeps tonight’s rankings and projected strikeout chances, and the Results page stays public forever.