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Shane Drohan
MIL · LHP vs CIN · 7:10 PM ET
fair read
o5.5
line · proj 6.0
54%over
Projected 6.0 K: 54% to go over his 5.5 line. He strikes out 23% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a middle-of-the-pack lineup for strikeouts (25%); he's usually done around 83 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets.
Chance to reach each total
924+
725+
546+
387+
218+
159+
910+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.23.4%
- The lineup he faces pushes the number up. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.25.4%
- How deep he pitches pulls the number down. his pitch counts in recent starts83 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pulls the number down. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
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