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Connor Prielipp
MIN · LHP vs CLE · 4:10 PM ET
thin read
o4.5
line · proj 4.4
45%over
Projected 4.4 K: 45% to go over his 4.5 line. He strikes out 25% of hitters, right around the league norm, facing a tough lineup to put away (18%), the kind that fouls off the good ones; he's usually done around 85 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets.
Chance to reach each total
614+
455+
276+
157+
98+
49+
<110+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.24.3%
- The lineup he faces pulls the number down. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.18.3%
- How deep he pitches pulls the number down. his pitch counts in recent starts85 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pushes the number up. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
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