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Ian Seymour
TB · LHP vs HOU · 6:10 PM ET
fair read
o5.5
line · proj 6.1
54%over
Projected 6.1 K: 54% to go over his 5.5 line. He misses a lot of bats, striking out 27% of the hitters he sees, facing a lineup that rarely strikes out (22%) and keeps putting the ball in play; he's usually done around 87 pitches, which caps how many chances he gets.
Chance to reach each total
924+
725+
546+
397+
238+
179+
1010+
Why this number
Each line is an input the model actually used, and which way it pushed. Nothing here is added after the fact.
- His strikeout rate pushes the number up. his strikeout rate this season. League average is 22.1% of batters faced.28.2%
- The lineup he faces pulls the number down. this lineup's strikeout rate this season. Above 22.1% means this lineup strikes out more than most.21.7%
- How deep he pitches roughly neutral. his pitch counts in recent starts87 pitches
- His manager's hook roughly neutral. how quickly this manager pulls his startersneutral
- Recent form pulls the number down. his recent velocity and two-strike whiffs against his own season norm
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