Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | -1.6 | 9% → no |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.7 | 2–6 | 1 | +2.7 | 2% → no |
| 2026-08-15 | 4.1 | 2–7 | 1 | +3.1 | 6% → no |
| 2026-08-09 | 4.1 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.1 | 6% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.