Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 3 | +0.4 | 3% → no |
| 2026-08-27 | 4.0 | 1–8 | 4 | 0.0 | 10% → no |
| 2026-07-18 | 5.8 | 3–9 | 6 | -0.2 | 22% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.