Fewer than five graded starts, so we are not publishing a summary yet. A record built on this few nights would say more about luck than about the model. The starts themselves are below.
| Date | Projected | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Big night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 3.9 | 2–7 | 3 | +0.9 | 5% → no |
| 2026-08-04 | 3.7 | 2–6 | 3 | +0.7 | 3% → no |
| 2026-07-30 | 3.3 | 1–5 | 6 | -2.7 | <1% → no |
| 2026-07-11 | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | +0.6 | 10% → no |
Miss is projected minus actual: positive means we projected more strikeouts than he threw. An actual shown in red landed outside the 80% range. Openers and short assignments are voided and never counted.